As my son and girlfriend can attest to, around 6PM on Monday I stated that I thought the risk of prolonged sleet was higher than was being predicted, and by yesterday morning the local meteorologists were calling for added sleet. Now, I grant you, I dont have fancy computer modeling software and tons of records and access to all of NWS data, but I do have a pretty good feel for weather based on a lifetime spent following it, access to a lot of NWS mapping data and the know how to read it.
Here's my call on the incoming winter storm and its output.
THURSDAY 12-5-13: Sleet should begin in the Tulsa area before noon, and my hunch tells me we should be seeing it here by 10AM. Sleet will come in waves, meaning you'll hear it bouncing off the roof sometimes and others you'll have to be outside to see that its still occurring. Road conditions are still warm enough that travel should be acceptable during daylight hours, however the melting that occurs from travel will result in slick spots on bridges and overpasses starting around noon.
Sleet should end around 5PM, leaving approx 1/2" of accumulation. Travel conditions will remain acceptable during the evening rush, with slick spots on bridges and overpasses being a concern. Those same areas should become slick around 8PM with arterial and residential streets showing slick spots around 10PM.
FRIDAY 12-6-13: Snow should start around 1AM in the metro, and continue through the day. Roads will be slick and hazardous during the morning rush as the layer of water and sleet freezes with the insulating blanket of snow. Heaviest bands of snow will be just to the south and east of the city (think Okmulgee, Wagoner). Snow should end by 8PM as the storm exits the area. 3-3 1/2" of snow will accumulate across the city. Roads will continue to be slick and hazardous through the weekend, as a secondary storm adds a trace to 1/4" of additonal snowfall during the overnight hours of Sat/Sun
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